PACKERVILLE, U.S.A.: Packers at Dolphins Preview

Packers hoping to maintain postseason hopes vs. Dolphins

Various Sources

GREEN BAY (6-8) at MIAMI (8-6)

DAY/TIME/TV: Sunday, 12:00 p.m. CST; FOX

SERIES RECORD: Dolphins lead 10-5.

LAST MEETING: Packers defeated Dolphins 31-12 in 2018 at Lambeau Field.

LAST WEEK: Packers beat the Rams 24-12; Dolphins lost to Buffalo 32-29.

PACKERS OFFENSE: OVERALL (15), RUSH (13), PASS (16), SCORING (20t)

PACKERS DEFENSE: OVERALL (15), RUSH (29), PASS (2), SCORING (15t)

DOLPHINS OFFENSE: OVERALL (5), RUSH (27), PASS (3), SCORING (9)

DOLPHINS DEFENSE: OVERALL (23), RUSH (10), PASS (27), SCORING (26t)

TURNOVER DIFFERENTIAL: Packers minus-3; Dolphins minus-2.

Back in November, Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel said Miami’s goal was to play in meaningful games in December and January. “When you are in those months playing meaningful football, it is something unlike any other style of football that exists,” McDaniel said. “The beginning of the season pales in comparison to that environment.” The Dolphins and the Green Bay Packers will have that type of experience when they meet on Christmas Day. Both teams are eyeing the postseason, but their scenarios to get there are quite different. The Dolphins (8-6) will make the playoffs if they win their last three games — or just their last two, against division foes New England and the New York Jets. Miami has lost three straight, though, and wants to begin its playoff push by beating Green Bay. Standing in their way is four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers. “We’re about to play Aaron Rodgers, who has been in the league for years and arguably one of the greatest quarterbacks to ever play,” safety Jevon Holland said. “So what more do you have to focus on? This is a huge challenge, especially for me. ... Playoffs are playoffs. I’ve never been to the playoffs so I wouldn’t know.” The Packers (6-8) likely need to win their last three games to make the postseason. Even if they win out, they’re not guaranteed to make it. “This is a really good football team that we’re going against,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said. “Obviously they’re very hungry. They’ve got a lot at stake. We’ve got a lot at stake, and it should be a playoff-type game.” McDaniel and LaFleur know each other well, having worked together as assistants with Houston, Washington and Atlanta. LaFleur said he sees some advantage in playing against a familiar coach. “I think it leads to some creativity, quite honestly,” he said, “because you might see the same concept that you have that gets ran and it’s like, OK, what wrinkle can I throw off of this, so I think there’s pluses and minuses to everything.”

THE GESICKI CONUNDRUM: One of the more surprising stories of the Dolphins’ season is how little Mike Gesicki, one of the most athletic tight ends in the NFL, has been involved in the offense. After having career highs of 73 receptions for 780 yards in 2021, Gesicki has caught 25 passes for 274 yards this year. He has only been targeted five times in the past four games and has just one catch for 5 yards during that span. “I’ve made plays in this league for a long time and I’ve proven the player I am,” Gesicki said. “There’s probably defensive coordinators that are going in and watching our film and have to put in time — or at least used to have to put in time — to ‘How are we going to affect the game plan with 88 out there?’ In my opinion, yeah, I could help, but I’m just going to go about it in the most professional way I can.” McDaniel said it’s a “failure to some degree” that he hasn’t gotten Gesicki more involved.

DISAPPOINTING DEFENSE: McDaniel said Miami’s defense is not playing to its capabilities. “I think any person in the locker room and every coach on the coaching staff would say no,” he said. “Just because they really believe in each other.” The Dolphins rank 27th in opponent third-down conversion percentage, and they rank near the bottom of the league in passing defense (27th), scoring defense (26th) and red-zone defense (25th).

A CHEETAH CHRISTMAS: Dolphins receiver Tyreek Hill has never played on Christmas Day and has a few holiday-themed celebrations planned for Sunday. “It’s gonna be a fun show,” Hill said. “I’m gonna give people something to watch. It’s gonna be very entertaining.” Hill has 109 catches for 1,529 and seven TDs this season.

NIXON’S RETURNS: Green Bay’s Keisean Nixon wasn’t even the Packers’ main kick returner at the start of the season, but he now has eight kickoff returns of 30-plus yards and three of 50-plus yards to lead the NFL in both categories. Nixon has returned at least one kickoff 30-plus yards in each of his last four games, the longest such streak by any Packer since Sam Shields did it in 2010. Packers coach Matt LaFleur acknowledged after Green Bay’s Monday night victory over the Los Angeles Rams that he should have made Nixon the main kick returner earlier in the season. “In all my 18 years, I’ve never once, until tonight, seen an opposing team’s kicker kick away from one of our returners on purpose,” Rodgers said after the Rams game. “That’s fun. That’s pretty incredible.”

CLIMATE CHANGE: The Packers played Monday night with temperatures of 15 degrees — and the wind chill measured at 7 — just before the opening kickoff. They’re preparing for a much different situation Sunday, though it won’t be quite as warm as usual in Miami. The forecast calls for highs in the mid-50s.

PACKERS PLAYER TO WATCH: OLB Preston Smith. His recent surge has helped boost a pass rush that had struggled since Rashan Gary suffered a season-ending knee injury in early November. Smith had two sacks in a Monday night victory over the Los Angeles Rams and has four sacks over his past four games, improving his season total to 7½.

DOLPHINS PLAYER TO WATCH: WR Jaylen Waddle is averaging 18 yards per reception this season, the best in the NFL. He caught three passes for 113 yards against Buffalo, including a 67-yard TD, the longest of his career.

KEY MATCHUP: QB Tua Tagovailoa vs Packers secondary. Tagovailoa has already surpassed his career total in yards passing with 3,238 yards, 24 TDs and just five interceptions. The Packers have one of the best passing defenses in the league, highlighted by cornerback Jaire Alexander’s four interceptions. Only the Eagles have allowed fewer passing yards than Green Bay.

INJURY REPORT (FRIDAY): GREEN BAY: DOUBTFUL: T David Bakhtiari (knee/abdomen). LIMITED: G/T Elgton Jenkins (knee), RB Aaron Jones (knee). FULL: LB Krys Barnes (hand), S Rudy Ford (wrist/knee), TE Marcedes Lewis (NIR-resting player), CB Keisean Nixon (groin), QB Aaron Rodgers (right thumb/rib). MIAMI: DOUBTFUL: WR River Cracraft (calf), T Eric Fisher (calf). QUESTIONABLE: RB Myles Gaskin (illness), T Terron Armstead (toe/pectoral/knee), LB Bradley Chubb (knee), LB Jaelan Phillips (toe), S Eric Rowe (hamstring), RB Jeffery Wilson (hip). FULL: QB Teddy Bridgewater (knee), DB Keion Crossen (knee), S Jevon Holland (neck), CB Kader Kohou (thumb), LB Duke Riley (ribs), TE Durham Smythe (quadricep).

SERIES NOTES: The Packers trail the series 10-5, but have won four of the past five meetings. ... Aaron Rodgers threw two touchdown passes and Aaron Jones ran for two touchdowns when the Packers beat the Dolphins in 2018. Brock Osweiler started at quarterback for Miami and Frank Gore rushed for 90 yards on 13 carries.

STATS AND STUFF: This is the second straight season the Packers are playing on Christmas Day. They beat the Cleveland Browns 24-22 at Lambeau Field last Christmas… This marks just the second time Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has faced the Dolphins in Miami. The previous time came in a 27-24 Packers victory in 2014… The Packers have won 14 consecutive December games. The only team ever to have a longer December winning streak was the San Diego Chargers with 18 straight December wins from 2006-09, according to the Elias Sports Bureau… This marks the Packers’ last regular-season road game. They host the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions in their final two games… Packers K Mason Crosby can set the franchise record for consecutive games played Sunday. Crosby has played 255 consecutive games to match Hall of Fame QB Brett Favre for the Packers’ longest streak… Packers WR Aaron Jones has 5,100 yards rushing and moved into third place on the franchise’s list Monday night by passing John Brockington (5,024). The Packers’ top two rushers are Ahman Green (8,322) and Hall of Fame Jim Taylor (8,207)… Packers KR/DB Keisean Nixon has at least one kickoff return of 30-plus yards in each of his past four games. He’s the first Packer to do that since Sam Shields in 2010. Nixonn has three kickoff returns of 50-plus yards and eight of 30-plus yards this season to lead the NFL in both categories… Packers coach Matt LaFleur and Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel were coaching colleagues with Houston (2008), Washington (2011-13) and Atlanta (2015-16)… CB Jaire Alexander was selected to the Pro Bowl and six other Packers were selected as alternates… Miami WR Tyreek Will, LT Terron Armstead and CB Xavien Howard were selected to the Pro Bowl. Five other Dolphins, including QB Tua Tagovailoa, were selected as alternates… Miami is 11-1 in its past 12 home games. The Dolphins last went 12-1 at home in the mid-1980s… The Dolphins are 2-1 all time on Christmas Day, including a double-overtime win at Kansas City in the 1971 AFC divisional round. Miami beat Detroit at home on Christmas in 1994 and lost to the Jets at home on Christmas in 2006… Miami has the NFL’s fifth-best overall offense, averaging 370.4 yards per game… The Dolphins are 21st in the league in third down conversion percentage… Tagovailoa leads the NFL in overall passer rating (107.8) and red zone passer rating (111.8)… WR Tyreek Hill has 10 receptions for 113 yards in two games against the Packers. Hill and Waddle are the NFL’s only pair of teammates with more than 1,000 yards receiving this season. Hill is second in the league with 1,529 yards. Waddle has 1,117… Miami’s defense is allowing 246.3 passing yards per game, which is 27th in the NFL… Miami had a 100-yard rusher and 100-yard receiver in the same game last week for the first time since 2018… Despite winning four of their last five meetings, the Packers are 5-10 all-time against the Dolphins. It is Green Bay's worst record against any active franchise… The Packers shut out the Rams in the fourth quarter of their 24-12 win. Since Week 8, the Packers have allowed 20 points in the fourth quarter (including four shutouts) with only the 49ers (14) allowing fewer fourth quarter points over that span… Aaron Rodgers has gone 18 consecutive starts without passing for 300 yards, six games longer than the next longest streak of his career. It is the third-longest active streak among quarterbacks with at least one start in 2022 (Justin Fields, 23, and Taylor Heinicke, 22)… The Dolphins are allowing 15.3 points per game at home this season, 16.2 points per game less than on the road (31.5). That is the largest difference in the NFL and the third largest by any team in the last 40 seasons (2018 Chiefs, 16.6, and 2009 Seahawks, 16.2)… Including last week's loss in Buffalo, Tua Tagovailoa is now 0-4 in starts when the weather is below 50 degrees with a passer rating of 71.4. In starts with a temperature of 50 degrees or higher, Tagovailoa boasts a 17-7 (.708) record with a passer rating of 98.1… Packers receiver Christian Watson is tied for the league lead in total touchdowns among first-year players with nine (Kenneth Walker III, Seattle). In the Super Bowl era, the most scrimmage touchdowns by a first-year Packer is 11, by Eddie Lacy in 2013…