NFC championship game preview: Jayden Daniels' Commanders try to keep magical story going vs. favored Eagles
Various Sources
Washington (14-5) at Philadelphia (16-3)
Day/Time/TV: Sunday, 3:00 p.m. CST, FOX
Series record: Washington leads 90-85-5, including a win in the longtime NFC East Division rivals’ only previous playoff meeting in January 1991.
Last meeting: Jayden Daniels threw for five touchdown passes as the Commanders beat the Eagles 36-33 on Dec. 22 at Washington to end Philadelphia’s winning streak at 10 games.
Last week: Commanders defeated Detroit 45-31; Eagles beat the Rams 28-22.
Commanders offense: overall (7), rush (3), pass (17), scoring (5)
Commanders defense: overall (13), rush (30), pass (3), scoring (18)
Eagles offense: overall (8), rush (2), pass (29), scoring (7)
Eagles defense: overall (1), rush (10), pass (1), scoring (2)
Turnover differential: Commanders: plus-1; Eagles: plus-11
Eagles players to watch
RB Saquon Barkley. Barkley finished with a club-record 2,005 rushing yards in the regular season, 101 yards shy of breaking Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record of 2,105 yards, set in 1984. Philadelphia’s star running back was held out of the team’s meaningless regular-season finale against the Giants as a precaution by coach Nick Sirianni. Barkley ran for 119 yards in his return to the field against the Packers in the opening round of the playoffs before following it up with a franchise playoff record of 205 rushing yards against the Rams on Sunday.
X-factor
Somehow, the Commanders have to slow down Saquon Barkley. In the two regular-season meetings, Barkley rushed for 146 and 150 yards against them. Washington probably isn't holding Barkley under 100 yards. He has hit 100 yards in 11 of his last 13 games. The Commanders gave up the third-most rushing yards and fifth-highest yards per carry in the NFL for the regular season. But they need to find a way to keep Barkley from taking over the game, and it probably starts with their linebackers. Bobby Wagner had another exceptional season. He ranked second among linebackers in run defense grade this season at Pro Football Focus. Frankie Luvu was an expert signing in free agency. He had 10 tackles and two sacks in the first meeting with the Eagles. The Commanders' top two linebackers are crucial to keeping the Eagles from running all over them. Others like safety Jeremy Chinn will need to step up as well. Barkley is going to get plenty of yards. But Washington's run defense needs to make sure he doesn't gash it with multiple big plays. It's a big ask.
Commanders player to watch
Daniels. The rookie quarterback lit up the Eagles defense in the previous matchup in late December, accounting for 339 yards between nine carries and 24 completions. The No. 2 overall pick out of LSU passed for 299 yards and two TDs and ran for 51 yards in the win at Detroit on Saturday night.
Key matchup
Washington’s defense against Barkley. The Commanders were 30th in the regular season defending the run, allowing an average of 137.5 yards per game. That doesn’t bode well for stopping Barkley. In the regular season, Barkley became the ninth player in NFL history to rush for 2,000-plus yards, helping the Eagles average 179.3 yards on the ground, good for second in the league. And he has continued rolling in the playoffs, breaking Steve van Buren’s franchise record for rushing yards in a playoff game by running all over the Rams. The second of Barkley’s two rushing TDs against Los Angeles, a 78-yard scamper through the snow, instantly became one of the highlights of the season and one of the best plays in recent Eagles history.
How the Commanders can win
Every week it's the same answer, and that's Jayden Daniels. While there is sometimes too much emphasis put on quarterbacks, in the Commanders' case their success really does revolve around their star rookie. The Commanders aren't completely devoid of talent, but their roster is clearly much worse than any other team in the NFL's final four. But they have a special quarterback. Washington turned it over five times in the Week 16 win over the Eagles (clearly they can't do that again) but still won because Daniels threw five touchdowns. Since the end of September the Eagles have allowed more than 23 points just once, and it was the 36 they allowed to Washington. The Commanders have to play the same efficient offensive football they've played most of the season, including converting some key fourth downs that Dan Quinn likes to go for, and hope the defense can make enough plays to give Daniels a chance to win it at the end. That formula has produced a lot of wins for Washington this season.
How the Eagles can win
The Eagles have passed for a net total of 186 passing yards in two playoff games. Last week's snowstorm played into Philadelphia having just 65 net passing yards, but their lack of a productive passing game still seems impossible for an elite team in this era. However, the Eagles have figured out how they want to play. Saquon Barkley is going to carry the offense while everyone else can catch up on their reading, and an excellent defense will carry them home. If Jalen Hurts' knee injury, which he suffered in the divisional round, hinders him at all then we'll see even more of an emphasis on Barkley, if that's possible. Philly's approach has been working. The only bad game Philadelphia's defense has had since September was against the Commanders in Week 16, and while that's a bit concerning for Sunday's challenge against Jayden Daniels, assume that defensive coordinator Vic Fangio will make adjustments. Philadelphia has gone old school, running the ball and playing defense to get to the NFC championship game. And that will be their agenda as long as they're alive in this postseason.
Key injuries
Commanders: RG Sam Cosmi suffered a torn ACL in his right knee in the second quarter against Detroit and is out for the playoffs. Trent Scott replaced Cosmi for the remainder of the game against the Lions… Neither DT Daron Payne (knee/finger) nor LB Bobby Wagner (ankle) practiced on Wednesday, though they are expected to play.
Eagles: Hurts limped off the field following Sunday’s win after appearing to injure his left knee late in the game… The Eagles held a walkthrough on Wednesday. If it was a full practice, Hurts would have been a limited participant. He said his knee was “progressing” and indicated that he could play on Sunday… Rookie CB Quinyon Mitchell injured a shoulder against the Rams. He participated in Wednesday’s walkthrough but would have been a limited participant for a regular practice. Mitchell told reporters he expects to play Sunday… TE Dallas Goedert (ankle) and C Cam Jurgens (back) would have been sidelined on Wednesday had it been a regular practice… LB Nakobe Dean was lost for the remainder of the playoffs after injuring his left knee in the second quarter against the Packers.
Rookie QB history
Daniels is one more upset away from becoming the first rookie quarterback to lead his team to the Super Bowl. He is only the sixth to reach a conference championship game. The previous five are Brock Purdy, Mark Sanchez, Joe Flacco, Ben Roethlisberger and Shaun King. Purdy’s 49ers lost at Philadelphia two years ago. “Man, I’m not even thinking that far,” Daniels said this week. “It would obviously be a blessing, but I’m just focused on how can I be better day by day.” Daniels already set the rookie QB record for rushing yards with 891, and he’s the leading passer through two rounds of the playoffs with 567. “He’s the ultimate pro as a rookie,” top receiver Terry McLaurin said. “Whether it’s a good play or a bad play, he’s always worried about the next play and he’s worried about how we can execute this next play at the highest possible ability that we have for our offense.”
Series notes
Mark Rypien passed for 206 yards and tossed touchdown passes to Gary Clark and Art Monk in the only playoff matchup between the teams, a 20-6 win by Washington in the wild-card round at Philadelphia on Jan. 5, 1991. ... Washington is 5-1 in franchise history in the NFC title game. ... The Eagles are hosting their fifth NFC title game at Lincoln Financial Field since it opened in 2003. They most recently played it at home two years ago when they beat San Francisco.
Stats and stuff
Only five current Commanders were alive the previous time the organization reached the NFC title game 33 years ago: Wagner, LB Nick Bellore, TE Zach Ertz, OL Cornelius Lucas and P Tress Way… The wild-card win at Tampa Bay was Washington’s first in the playoffs in 19 years… Washington forced five turnovers against Detroit, including a pair of interceptions by rookie CB Mike Sainristil. S Quan Martin had a 40-yard interception return for a TD. The Commanders also committed zero turnovers against Detroit… Washington ranked 30th in the regular season in rushing defense and allowed 105 yards and 2 TDs on the ground to Detroit’s Jahmyr Gibbs last week… Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler combined to rush for 124 yards and two TDs against the Lions. ... Philadelphia has won 14 of 15 overall and 25 of its past 30 at home, including the playoffs… Hurts threw for 131 yards and rushed for 36 in the playoff-opening win over Green Bay and passed for 128 yards and ran for 70 yards, including a 44-yard touchdown, against the Rams, who sacked him seven times… DT Jalen Carter had a stellar game against the Rams, with a forced fumble, two sacks and five tackles… WR A.J. Brown had 1,079 receiving yards in the regular season but has made just three catches for 24 yards in Philadelphia’s two playoff wins… K Jake Elliott missed a pair of extra points against the Rams after missing one against Green Bay the previous week. Elliott also made three field goals against Los Angeles, including two in the fourth quarter. The normally reliable kicker went 28 of 36 in the regular season, missing 6 of 7 from 50-plus yards… Philadelphia’s defense, led by veteran coordinator Vic Fangio, finished the regular season ranked first overall (278.4 yards per game) and tops in passing defense (174.2 yards per game). It is the seventh time in club history the Eagles have led the league in total defense, also doing it in 1991, 1981, 1953, 1949, 1945 and 1944.
As the Chiefs chase a Super Bowl three-peat, the Bills aim to spoil the party in Kansas CityVarious Sources
Buffalo (15-4) at Kansas City (16-2)
Day/Time/TV: Sunday, 5:30 p.m. CST, CBS/Paramount+
Series record: Bills lead 30-25-1.
Last meeting: Bills beat Chiefs 30-21 on Nov. 17 in Buffalo.
Last week: Bills beat Ravens 27-25; Chiefs beat Texans 23-14.
Bills offense: overall (10), rush (9), pass (9), scoring (2).
Bills defense: overall (17), rush (12), pass (24), scoring (T11).
Chiefs offense: overall (16), rush (22), pass (14), scoring (15).
Chiefs defense: overall (9), rush (8), pass (18), scoring (4).
Turnover differential: Bills plus-24; Chiefs plus-6.
Bills player to watch
Josh Allen is enjoying his most efficient season, and the Buffalo quarterback has a track record of raising his level of play in the playoffs. He’s 7-5 in the postseason with a franchise-record 23 touchdowns passing against just four interceptions, and his seven TDs rushing in the postseason are tied for second on the NFL list among QBs, one behind Steve Young. In three playoff losses to Kansas City, Allen is a combined 81 of 126 for 802 yards with seven TDs passing, two rushing and just one interception.
X-factor
From all the way back in August, everyone understood that Travis Kelce wouldn't be a workhorse during the season at age 35, and would be saved for the playoffs. Then when it happened, everyone seemed surprised. Kelce, who had one 100-yard game all season, had 117 yards in the divisional round against the Houston Texans. It seems just like last year, when Kelce had a fairly quiet regular season and then posted 355 yards and three touchdowns in the playoffs. Kelce had an even quieter regular season in 2024, with a career-low 823 yards while averaging a career-low 8.5 yards per catch. Before last season, when Kelce averaged 10.6 yards per catch, he had never had a season average lower than 12.2. The Chiefs understood his limitations, considering how little success there has been for tight ends his age. Based on last week, it seems like he might have enough left for one more big postseason push.
How the Bills can win
Last Sunday should change how we view the Bills. The narrative, shaped by those who support Josh Allen over Lamar Jackson for NFL MVP, was that the Bills are a subpar team carried along by Allen. Then the Bills beat the Ravens with Allen having a pretty quiet game. Allen had just 127 yards passing and 20 yards rushing. He wasn't bad, it's just that the Bills had other ways to win. Realistically, Allen is going to have to play great to beat the Chiefs. He had 262 passing yards and 55 rushing yards when the Bills beat the Chiefs in Week 11. But the Bills are more than just Allen. The Bills' offense shifted when it promoted Joe Brady to offensive coordinator in the middle of last season to run the ball more, and Buffalo does it well with James Cook, who had 16 rushing touchdowns in the regular season. The Bills aren't a great defensive team — 12th in EPA allowed per play, 16th in success rate — but they're good enough to keep the team in the game. Buffalo held the Chiefs to just 259 yards in the regular-season meeting. Contrary to what you've heard, the Bills are a good all-around team. And for this game, they'll probably also need Allen to play like an MVP to bring it home.
How the Chiefs can win
The Chiefs just need to make it a close game, apparently. Kansas City has a streak of 16 straight wins in one-score games, which is an NFL record and also a mathematical miracle. While winning that many close games in a row is a bit fortunate, there's a reason for it. The Chiefs have been in so many pressure situations, they are well equipped to handle it. That gives them a massive edge in big games. While the Bills have the baggage of playoff failures the past few seasons, Kansas City thrives when games get tight. The Chiefs will need to keep Josh Allen from breaking too many game-changing runs, it would be ideal if Kansas City got a struggling run game going, and it wouldn't hurt to have someone like rookie receiver Xavier Worthy make some big plays. But the Chiefs have a massive edge in the intangible parts of each game. That's why every close game goes their way. The Bills better make sure it's not close at the end.
Chiefs player to watch
Patrick Mahomes moved into a tie with Joe Montana for the second-most playoff wins as a starting quarterback in the divisional round against Houston. But while Montana was 16-7 for his career, the Chiefs’ two-time NFL MVP is 16-3, and two of the three losses came in overtime in the AFC championship game while the other came in the Super Bowl — the only Super Bowl he’s lost in four tries.
Key matchup
The Chiefs defensive front against Bills quarterback Josh Allen, who beat them both rushing and passing in a loss in Buffalo in November. Allen threw for 262 yards and a touchdown in that game while running 12 times for 55 yards and another score — a 26-yard TD run with 2:17 left that sealed the 30-21 victory for the Bills.
Key injuries
Bills safety Taylor Rapp is questionable after being carted off the sideline with a hip injury Sunday. Starting linebacker Matt Milano’s status bears monitoring after he did not finish Sunday’s game with a hamstring injury. Starting cornerback Christian Benford (concussion protocol) practiced on a limited basis early this week.
The Chiefs came out of their game against Houston healthy. That includes cornerback Jaylen Watson, who was playing for the first time since breaking his ankle Oct. 20 against San Francisco.
Road bumps
The Bills are 0-4 on the road in the playoffs under Sean McDermott, and they’ve dropped seven straight since a 29-10 victory at Miami in the AFC championship game in the 1992 season. Two of their losses have come in overtime, a 22-19 defeat at Houston in the 2019 wild-card round and that 42-36 loss at Kansas City in the 2021 divisional round. There’s also the “Music City Miracle,” a 22-16 loss at Tennessee in the 1999 wild-card round that was decided on a kickoff return in the final seconds.
Gambling man
McDermott will never be considered the NFL’s biggest gambler on fourth downs, but the Bills coach has been one of the most successful this season. Buffalo converted 16 of 22 opportunities in the regular season for a 72.7% success rate that was second in the league. It’s a big improvement from McDermott’s first season, when the Bills converted 2 of 15. “You grow through the years. You learn things. You learn about a bunch about your team for that season,” he said. “So all are a little bit different. But you continue to try to put your team in position to win. And that’s what we do.”
Reinforcements
The Chiefs didn’t have injured pass rusher Charles Omenihu nor cornerback Jaylen Watson when the Bills beat them 30-21 in November. Omenihu didn’t return from his torn ACL for two more weeks, and Watson didn’t make it back from a broken ankle until their 24-13 divisional win over Houston. Both could play a big role in slowing down Allen and Co. on Sunday.
Turnover time
The Bills had a league-best plus-24 turnover differential in the regular season, and they’re plus-3 in two playoff games. The Chief were merely plus-6 in the regular season, but they’re plus-11 and have not lost a turnover since playing Buffalo in Week 11. “Every team that’s won ball security, won the turnover battle, has won the game (in the playoffs) so far,” Mahomes said. “That is important to us. Buffalo does a great job it. I don’t think they’ve lost a turnover battle this season.”
Under pressure
The Chiefs had eight sacks against the Texans last weekend, the second most in a playoff game in franchise history. But getting Allen to the ground is a tough task — he was sacked 17 times in the regular season, and Kansas City failed to do it at all. “Once you have ahold of him,” Chiefs coach Andy Reid said, “you’d better know he’s going to be difficult to bring down.”
Series notes
Since meeting for the AFC title on Jan. 24, 2021, the Bills and Chiefs have met seven times, with Buffalo winning all four regular-season matchups and Kansas City winning each of the three playoff games. That includes a 38-24 win that sent the Chiefs to the Super Bowl, a 42-36 overtime win in the divisional round the following year, and a 27-24 divisional win in Buffalo last year. The team also met for the 1993 conference championship with Buffalo winning 30-13 in the midst of four straight Super Bowl appearances, and the Bills won a divisional playoff game on Jan. 5, 1992. Kansas City beat the Bills 31-7 for the AFL title on Jan. 1, 1967, and would lose to the Packers two weeks later in the first Super Bowl.
Stats and stuff
The Bills are 4-2 in the AFC championship game with all four wins coming during the 1990-93 seasons… The Bills are 0-4 in road playoff games in coach Sean McDermott’s eight seasons and 3-12 overall. They’ve lost seven straight playoff road games since a 29-10 win at Miami in the AFC championship game in the 1992 season. That playoff road skid is the third longest in the NFL behind Dallas, Cleveland, Seattle and the New York Giants, who each dropped eight straight, and Detroit (12)… McDermott’s 93 wins, including playoffs, are tied with Mike Holmgren for second most by a coach through his first eight seasons. Only George Seifert (108) won more… The Bills are the NFL’s first team without a turnover in four straight playoff outings. Buffalo hasn’t turned over the ball since Allen threw an interception in a 27-10 loss to Cincinnati in the 2022 divisional round… The Bills finished the season with a league-best plus-24 turnover differential, which they’ve increased to plus-27 through the postseason… Allen has completed passes to eight players in each of Buffalo’s first two playoff games this year… With two rushing TDs last week, Allen increased his playoff career total to seven, tied with Tom Brady for second on the NFL list, and one behind Steve Young… Allen’s 629 yards rushing in the playoffs rank second on the career list behind Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson (641)… The Bills are 8-1 when scoring a touchdown on their opening drive this season. Their only loss was a 44-42 decision at the Los Angeles Rams on Dec. 8… The Chiefs are in the AFC title game for the seventh consecutive season with six of them having been played in Kansas City. New England holds the record with eight straight from 2011-18… Chiefs coach Andy Reid won his 300th career game last week in the divisional round against Houston. The only other NFL coaches to eclipse that mark are Don Shula (347), Bill Belichick (333) and George Halas (324)… Chiefs TE Travis Kelce needs 226 yards receiving to break the playoff record of 2,245 set by Jerry Rice from 1985-04. Kelce also needs three TD catches to break Rice’s playoff record of 22… Kelce has nine playoff games with at least 100 yards receiving, including 117 against Houston in the divisional round. That is the longest streak in NFL history… The Chiefs had eight sacks against the Texans in the divisional round, the second most in a playoff game in franchise history. They had nine against Houston on Jan. 16, 1994… Chiefs DE George Karlaftis had three sacks against the Texans, tying the club playoff record held by Aaron Brown (at Oakland on Jan. 4, 1974) and Frank Clark (against Houston on Jan. 12, 2020)… CB Trent McDuffie has a Chiefs playoff record 13 passes defensed despite appearing in just three postseasons… Chiefs K Harrison Butker needs four field goals to pass David Akers (39) for third most playoff FGs in NFL history.
