2016 NFL Forecast

We came across this issue of “NFL Forecast” on the way home tonight, from the folks over at USA Today. On the cover, at least for those of us in the upper Midwest, is Green Bay WR Jordy Nelson. He’s back, he’s healthy, and we’re all glad. This is a pre-preview magazine, coming out earlier than the standard NFL season preview issues that usually arrive after July 4th, prior to training camps. Pick up a copy today and get those football juices flowing once again.

Troubled Times in Titletown

What is an image of a magazine with a baseball player on the cover doing here in Packerville, U.S.A., you may ask? Well, the Sports Illustrated magazine that was on the newsstands and in the subscribers’ mailboxes 29 years ago this week was this one. Inside, there was a very scathing article about the city of Green Bay and it’s professional football team. Those were dark times, indeed. But on the bright side, only four years later, it all started to turn around for the better. Read the article here.

The Revival Begins — Spring 1992

Whenever a new regime takes control of a franchise in the NFL, you get all of the positive talk and “everything will change” talk, and more often than not, in the end, it’s just all talk. But looking back at the beginning of the Ron Wolf / Mike Holmgren / Brett Favre era in the Spring of 1992 through this newsletter that went out to Green Bay Packers season ticket holders, things were indeed going to be different. We now know that it was only five years later that the team the league thought would never win again, would be victorious in Super Bowl XXXI. The methods of excellence and philosophies that were established then continue to guide the team today. This is where the revival started. Enjoy, and look for the ways the league has changed since those days almost a quarter of a century ago.

Green Bay Packers Draft — Day 3

ROUND 4:

BLAKE MARTINEZ —ROUND 4 (#131 Overall)
College: Stanford
Position: ILB
Height: 6’ 2”
Weight: 237 lbs.
Year: Senior
Hometown: Tucson, Ariz.
High School: Canyon del Oro

OVERVIEW: In his first year as a starter in 2014, Martinez proved worthy of honorable mention All-Pac-12 honors by leading the Cardinal with 102 tackles, seven for loss, 4.5 sacks, and three interceptions. In Year 2, he played at an All-American level (third-team Associated Press, second-team USA Today) as the Cardinal won the conference championship, stuffing plays inside and moving to either sideline to rack up 141 tackles, 6.5 for loss. The 2015 first-team All-Conference pick again made plays against the pass this year, intercepting one pass and breaking up six others.

PRO DAY RESULTS: Vertical: 34 inches / 60-yard long shuttle: 11.68 seconds

ANALYSIS

STRENGTHS: Good muscle thickness and one of the most powerful, pound­-for­-pound players in the program. Has desired temperament to play in the middle. Physical, productive tackler. Downhill linebacker. Business-minded machine against the run, maintaining consistent gap responsibility. Disciplined on back-side squeezing cutback lanes. Stuffs second level leg blocks and keeps gliding down the line. Uses heavy hands at the point of attack. Plays square to line of scrimmage with eyes stuck on runner. Plus balance and keeps his feet. Will dart and dodge past oncoming, second level traffic in lateral pursuit of ball carrier. Improved against the pass from 2014 to 2015. Showed some functional ability in man coverage and is quick to close out throws and limit yards after catch. Offers instant special teams value. Willing worker on "teams" and finds the ball.

WEAKNESSES: Slow twitch with borderline play speed. Must transition from a power mindset to a little more quickness in everything he does. Will need quicker hands to jab and separate to stay clean against NFL linemen. Below average lateral quickness. Won't win many foot races to the perimeter and has little margin for error with his angles. Not athletic enough to recover if he gets hung up on a block for too long. Too easily fooled into vacating his positioning by play-­action. Doesn't have reactive athleticism to quickly recover back into his duties after biting on fakes. More of a block occupier than serious threat when blitzing. Average awareness dropping into zone coverage. Situational awareness needs work.

DRAFT PROJECTION: Rounds 5 or 6

NFL COMPARISON: Martrell Spaight

BOTTOM LINE: Full-­time starter over the last two years who plays with the temperament and ruggedness that Stanford wants in the middle of their defense. Martinez is a muscled-­up, throwback linebacker in a league that covets twitch and play speed over throwback traits. His special teams ability and overall tackle production is a big plus, but his draft stock might not match up with his elevated college production due to concerns over his quickness.
(NFL.com)

As a Senior (2015)
• Associated Press All-America third team
• USA Today All-America second team
• Phil Steele All-America second team
• All-Pac-12 first team
• Associated Press All-Pac-12 first team
• Phil Steele All-Pac-12 first team
• Butkus Award semifinalist
• Rotary Lombardi Award watch list
• Nagurski Trophy watch list
• Bednarik Award watch list
• Lott IMPACT Trophy quarterfinalist
• SI.com Midseason All-America second team
• Phil Steele All-America preseason fourth team
• Phil Steele All-Pac-12 preseason first team
• Athlon All-Pac-12 preseason second team
• Lott IMPACT Player of the Week (Dec. 1)
• 14 games played
• Team-high 141 tackles
• 10.1 tackles/game [first in Pac-12]
• 75 solo tackles
• 1.5 sacks
• Six pass breakups
• Team-high 14 tackles at Northwestern
• 10 tackles (2.0 tackles for loss), one interception vs. UCF
• 14 tackles (eight solo) at USC
• 12 tackles, one pass breakup at Oregon State
• 13 tackles vs. Arizona
• Seven tackles (1.5 tackles for loss) vs. UCLA
• 10 tackles vs. Washington
• 11 tackles (10 solo) at Washington State
• Four tackles at Colorado
• Five tackles vs. Oregon
• Nine tackles vs. Cal
• 12 tackles (10 solo), one pass breakup vs. Notre Dame
• 11 tackles (1.5 tackles for loss), one sack, one forced fumble in Pac-12 Championship Game 
• Nine tackles, 0.5 sack and a pass breakup in Rose Bowl

The Martinez File
• Played for head coach Dustin Peace at Canyon del Oro (Ariz.)
     • Attended Mountain View (2008-09) and Santa Rita (2009)
     • Tight end, running back and linebacker
• PrepStar All-West Region 
• Two-time Southern Arizona Defensive Player of the Year
• Canyon del Oro career record holder with 247 tackles
• 1,100 yards total offensive yards as a senior
• Lettered in volleyball and basketball
• Born in Tucson, Ariz.
• Full name is Blake Edmon Martinez
• Son of Marc and Carrisa Martinez
• Three siblings: Hailley, Madison and Logan
• Majoring in management science and engineering
(Stanford PR)

ROUND 4:

DEAN LOWRY — ROUND 4 PICK 39 (#137 Overall)
College: Northwestern
Position: DE
Height: 6’ 6”
Weight: 296 lbs.
Year: Senior
Hometown: Rockford, Ill.
High School: Boylan Catholic

OVERVIEW: The Chicago Tribune All-State pick decided to stay in-state to play for a Wildcats legend in head coach Pat Fitzgerald at Northwestern. Like Fitzgerald was during his time as a two-time Bronko Nagurski Trophy and Chuck Bednarik Award winner with the Wildcats, Lowry is a lunch pail player who brings effort on every snap. He’s also a better athlete than most people realize, showing the agility to spin off blocks and make plays in the backfield (15 tackles for loss, 8.5 sacks in 2013-2014). His senior year capped an excellent career, with a highlight being his school-record six tackles for loss against Nebraska. He finished as a second-team All-Big Ten honoree with 46 tackles, 13.5 for loss, and three sacks. Lowry could play multiple spots along the line depending on his new team’s defensive scheme.

ANALYSIS

STRENGTHS: Comes off the snap with burst and good pad level. Gives chase on the backside with great motor and good play speed. Willing to pursue the ball with consistency or effort. When pad level is good, can generate effective speed-­to-­power attack. Has play frame to fit classic 3-­4 DE spot. Coaches praise his work ethic and team­-first mentality. Does the dirty work that helps others succeed. Always active. Tackle finisher who rarely allows runners to escape. Had as many tackles and more tackles for loss than Joey Bosa.

WEAKNESSES: Short arms and small hands prevent him from posting higher win percentage at point of attack. Not as aware of the ball as he needs to be. Needs to unhinge from blockers earlier when runners are in his neighborhood. Gets stood straight up at contact as bull rusher. Pad level and narrow base rob him of bull-­rush power when rushing from inside. Dull, straight-ahead rusher with no pass rush plan. Doesn’t threaten the edges of blockers. Marginal play­making change of direction.

DRAFT PROJECTION: Round 7 or priority free agent

BOTTOM LINE: Try-hard player with good size who is always active. While he won’t be considered a pass rushing threat, Lowry’s production was a function of effort and flashes of power and the aforementioned traits and qualities give him a good shot at being drafted and becoming an NFL backup.
(NFL.com)

2015: True senior ... Consensus Second-Team All-Big Ten honoree ... Picked up a spot on the All-Big Ten third team defense by Athlon Sports ... Critical part of the stout Northwestern defense that is in the top of the nation in scoring defense ... Ranks second on the team with 13.5 tackles for loss ... Set an NU single-game record and tied the sixth-best mark in Big Ten history with his six tackles for loss in the win over Nebraska ... Also notched two sacks in that game and was named NU's Defensive Player of the Game ... Tied for the team lead with eight quarterback hurries ... Picked up six tackles and 0.5 tackle for loss in win over Duke, earning Defensive Player of the Week for Northwestern ... Posted a pair of TFLs and 5 tackles in shutout of Minnesota ... Recorded five tackles and one tackle for loss versus Purdue ... Named to the fourth-team defensive team on Phil Steele's 2015 Preseason All-Big Ten Team.

2014: True junior ... Honorable Mention All-Big Ten honoree by league coaches ... Started all 12 games at defensive end and totaled 41 tackles, ranking second on the defense with 8.0 TFLs ... Matched career high with six tackles against Illinois, adding a PBU and a QB hurry ... Also had six stops at Notre Dame ... Tallied 1.5 TFL and forced a fumble at Notre Dame ... Had five tackles, including 1.0 TFL at Minnesota ... Collected 1.5 TFL and a pass breakup from DE spot at Penn State ... Showed versatility against Western Illinois by assuming the starting DT position and finished with four tackles, one sack and two pass breakups ... Posted five tackles and a half-sack against NIU ... Recorded one sack in season-opener vs. Cal ... Named NU's Defensive Player of the Game vs. Northern Illinois and the Defensive Big Playmaker vs. Notre Dame ... Academic All-Big Ten.

2013: True sophomore ... Started nine games at defensive end ... Tied for second on the team with 7.0 tackles for loss ... Third on the team with 4.5 sacks ... Posted career-high 1.5 sacks at Illinois ... Had one of five NU sacks vs. Michigan ... Missed action at Nebraska with an injury ... Tallied two assisted stops vs. Minnesota ... Notched a career-high six tackles against Ohio State, including five solo stops ... Also recovered a fumble against the Buckeyes ... Picked off a pass and returned it 19 yards for a touchdown against Maine ... Also forced a fumble against the Black Bears ... Credited with a pass breakup against Western Michigan ... Made first career start at defensive end against Syracuse ... Recorded first career interception and returned it 16 yards against Orange ... Added four tackles, 1.0 TFL and a pass breakup against Syracuse ... Tallied two tackles and a forced fumble in season opener at Cal ... Deflected pass that led to Collin Ellis' 56-yard interception returned for a touchdown.

2012: One of four freshmen to crack the lineup in 2012, playing in all 13 games as a backup to Tyler Scott ... 14 tackles on the year with 3.0 TFL's and six QB hurries ... Named to ESPN.com Big Ten All-Freshman Team ... Made his debut as a reserve defensive end at Syracuse and recorded one QB hurry ... Made a big impact vs. Vanderbilt with a fumble recovery, a QB hurry, two tackles and a pass deflection at the line of scrimmage ... Two stops against South Dakota ... Career-best three tackles (all solos) with a PBU and a QB hurry against Indiana ... Recorded two tackles at Penn State ... Posted two tackles, including a 10-yard TFL, against Nebraska ... Notched first career sack at Michigan State, dropping Andrew Maxwell for an 11-yard loss in the fourth quarter ... One stop in TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl win vs. Mississippi State.

High School: ESPN.com three-star honoree ... Ranked 47th overall among defensive ends and 20th best prospect in Illinois by 247Sports ... Ranked 95th overall among defensive ends by Scout.com and 115th overall nationally among defensive ends by ESPN.com ... SuperPrep All-Midwest honoree ... Chicago Tribune All-State and Champaign-News Gazette All-State selection ... IHCA 7A All-State honoree ... Northern Illinois Conference (NIC-10) Defensive MVP and Team MVP ... Recorded 65 tackles, 21 TFL's and 10 sacks ... Lettered twice in football and was a member of back-to-back 14-0 Boylan teams ... Lettered one year in basketball as a center and played baseball his freshman year ... Honor roll during his junior and senior years at Boylan, earning a NIC-10 Scholar Athlete distinction ... Recognized for Excellence in Business Law and Excellence in Marketing ... Coached by Dan Appino.

Personal: Born Dean Vincent Lowry ... Son of Margaret and John Lowry ... Played against fellow Wildcat Dan Vitale and former NU player Jarrell Williams ... Majoring in economics with a minor in business institutions.
(Northwestern PR)

ROUND 5:

TREVOR DAVIS — ROUND 5 PICK 26 (#163 Overall)
College: California
Position: Wide Receiver
Height: 6’ 1”
Weight: 188 lbs.
Year: Senior
Hometown: Martinez, Calif.
High School: Hawai'i/Alhambra HS
Experience: 1 Letter

OVERVIEW: Most people spend their lives trying to get to Hawai'i at least once, but Davis decided that two years in the Rainbow State was enough, especially after head coach Norm Chow was let go. He had started 10 times in his two years with the Warriors, racking up 45 receptions for 601 yards and five touchdowns. After sitting out a redshirt season in 2013, Davis became an all-purpose threat for the Bears, making plays as a receiver (24-399, five TD) and returner (424 kickoff return yards, 70 punt return yards) as a junior. He had 40 receptions in 2014 (one of six players hitting that mark) that covered 672 yards and two scores, and had 686 kickoff return and 45 punt return yards as well. Those sort of receiving/return numbers won't go unnoticed by NFL scouts.

ANALYSIS

STRENGTHS: Quality return man specializing in kick­offs with two touchdowns under his belt while at Cal. Former high school long jumper and sprinter with build­up speed to challenge deep safeties from the hash. Competitive runner after the catch with ability to make defenders miss and finish his runs with some authority. Hands are adequate.

WEAKNESSES: Track speed doesn't translate underneath. Needs runway to get going and can't hit jets out of his breaks for separation. Needs to improve hard vertical push to clear space for comebacks and outs. One­-speed, rounded routes need work. Struggles to release cleanly against quality press coverage.

DRAFT PROJECTION: Rounds 6 or 7

SOURCES TELL US: "He's a pretty good returner. I don't see him being drafted, but he could make a team as a return man and last receiver on the depth chart." -- NFC West scout

BOTTOM LINE: Wiry catch-­and-­run specialist whose NFL value rests in his return ability. Davis could be a difficult sell because he's not an NFL­-ready receiver, but a big combine could create late-round interest or elevate his stock as a priority free agent.
(NFL.com)

Career Stats
Davis played in 23 games with 11 starts during the final two seasons of his three campaigns at Cal after sitting out a 2013 redshirt campaign due to NCAA transfer rules following two seasons at Hawai’i in 2011-12. He finished his Cal career with 2,300 all-purpose yards including 1,071 yards receiving and seven touchdown catches on 64 receptions while he had 1,110 yards on 45 kick returns including two for touchdowns to tie a school record while his 24.7 kick return average is fifth in school history. Davis was one of the nation’s top kick returners as a 2014 junior, ranking second nationally with a 32.6 yards per kick return average and tied for second with two kick return touchdowns that both set school marks. Davis had both of the kick return touchdowns on back-to-back third-quarter returns to equal NCAA and Pac-12 single-game records during a monster game at Washington State in which he also had two touchdown receptions and totaled a career-high and team season-high 280 all-purpose yards.

Cal Career (2013 – Present)
• Played in 23 games with 11 starts during the final two seasons of his three campaigns with the program after sitting out a 2013 redshirt campaign due to NCAA transfer rules following two seasons at Hawai’i in 2011-12

• Finished his career with 2,300 all-purpose yards, registering 1,071 yards receiving and seven touchdown catches on 64 receptions, 1,110 yards on 45 kick returns including two for touchdowns, 115 yards on 14 punt returns and four yards on three rushes to accumulate his all-purpose yards total

• Ranked second nationally and led the Pac-12 with a single-season school-record 32.6 yards per kick return average that also tied for second both nationally and in the Pac-12 with a school-record two kick returns for touchdowns among his 13 kick returns for 424 yards as a junior

• Had one of the most memorable games by an individual in the history of Cal football in a wild 60-59 win at Washington State as a junior when he equaled NCAA and Pac-12 single-game records by becoming the 20th player in FBS history and the third in the Pac-12 to bring back two kick returns for touchdowns in a single game on consecutive kick returns of 100 and 98 yards while adding three receptions for 82 yards and a career-high two scoring catches including the game-winner on a 51-yarder from Jared Goff in the fourth quarter for a career-high four touchdowns that were the most by a Cal player in 2014 for a career-high 280 all-purpose yards

• Other marks set and record books entries established during his performance in the contest at Washington State as a junior included kick returns that tied for the third and tied for the seventh longest in school history, and single-game school records for kick return touchdowns (2), kick returns yards (198) and kick return average (99.0 ypr)

• Had a career-high and team season-high 138 yards receiving on three catches including a 75-yard touchdown from Goff as a 2015 senior against San Diego State

• Had a career-high seven receptions for 80 yards as a senior at Stanford

• Had a career-long 76-yard touchdown reception from Goff in the first game of his Cal career at Northwestern

• Had a career-high and career-long 16 yards rushing on a single rush in the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl win over Air Force as a senior

• Had career highs of three punt returns and 31 punt return yards vs. Sacramento State with the longest punt return of his career a 24-yarder at Arizona, all as a junior

• Had at least one catch in each of his final 15 collegiate games and 22 of the 23 he played in at Cal

• Added four tackles

• Wore No. 9 during his final two seasons at Cal after he wore No. 82 in his first campaign with the Golden Bears in 2013

• Totaled 109 receptions, 1,711 yards receiving and 12 touchdown receptions in four seasons of collegiate action including his two seasons at Hawai'i

OTHER:
• Full name is Trevor Lee Davis
• Born July 4, 1993
• Parents are Mark Davis and Linda Norman-Davis
• Major is sociology
(California PR)

ROUND 6:

KYLE MURPHY — ROUND 6 PICK 25 (#200 Overall)
College: Stanford
Position: T
Height: 6’ 7”
Weight: 305 lbs.
Year: Senior
Hometown: San Clemente, Calif.
High School: San Clemente

OVERVIEW: Murphy played like a solid right tackle prospect as a second-team All-Pac-12 pick his junior year, his first full year as a starter. In 2015, however, the brother of former Harvard and Minnesota Vikings tackle Kevin Murphy slid to left tackle and improved greatly in pass protection while maintaining his toughness in the run game. He combined with left guard Joshua Garnett as first-team All-Conference picks on the blind side of quarterback Kevin Hogan, who reaped the benefits of their play.

ANALYSIS

STRENGTHS: Has good feel for the position. Very aware in pass protection seeking out blitzes and twists and takes consistent angles up to the linebackers in the running game. Once he gets moving in space, is able to open up his hips and run with a relatively athletic gait. Plays with strong hands and good placement that can snatch and latch if he gets there first. Makes low pad level a priority in run game. Is usually low man and will use good leg drive or snap hips to secure the block. Adequate change direction in space. Patient second level blocker allowing the block to come to him. Outstanding work with teammate Joshua Garnett with combo blocks and double teams. Doesn’t lean in pass protection and can gain decent ground with his kick ­slides.

WEAKNESSES: Feet are just average from a quickness standpoint. While he can be a little slow out of his stance and off to the races when moving laterally. Will get antsy pre-­snap. Tape shows him getting some headstarts that weren’t called by college officials. Troubling anchor issues as pass blocker. Will get stiff legged at impact in protection, raising pad level and losing anchor leverage. Needs to play more flat­-footed when shooting his punch. Speed to power rushers give him problems so may need to make inside hand placement a greater priority.

DRAFT PROJECTION: Rounds 5 or 6

SOURCES TELL US: "I don't think you can play him for at least a year until he gets stronger. He's a good run blocker but I don't know if he's strong enough to play on the right side or quick enough to play left." -- AFC general manager

NFL COMPARISON: Ty Sambrailo

BOTTOM LINE: Interesting prospect full of juxtapositions. On one hand, he’s an athletic mover in space, but his foot quickness is just average. While he plays with good bend, leg drive and low pad level as a run blocker, he tends to play too tall and lose his anchor against bull­ rushers. Murphy plays with good tackle instincts and shows enough potential to become an eventual starter in the NFL if he can improve his overall strength and tighten up some of his pass protection flaws.
(NFL.com)

As a Senior (2015):
• Phil Steele All-America third team
• All-Pac-12 first team
• Associated Press All-Pac-12 first team
• Phil Steele All-Pac-12 first team
• Rotary Lombardi Award watch list
• Outland Trophy watch list
• Athlon preseason All-America fourth team
• Athlon preseason All-Pac-12 first team
• ESPN.com All-Pac-12 preseason first team
• Phil Steele preseason All-Pac-12 second team
• 14 games played
• Starting left tackle

The Murphy File:
• Played for head coach Jonathan Hamro at San Clemente (Calif.)
• Three-year varsity letterwinner
• SuperPrep, PrepStar and MaxPreps All-America
• Five-star recruit by Rivals and Scout
• Four-star recruit by ESPN
• Nation’s third-best offensive tackle and 19th-best overall recruit by Rivals
• Nation’s fourth-best offensive tackle by Scout and ESPN
• California’s second-best recruit by Rivals and SuperPrep
• 27th on ESPN’s Top 150 list
• 11th overall among recruits by 247Sports
• Nation’s top offensive lineman and 16th recruit overall by SuperPrep
• Cal-Hi Sports ESPN All-State 
• Three-time all-South Coast Conference
• South Coast Conference MVP as a senior
• Two-time Orange County Register all-Orange County 
• Participated in 2012 U.S. Army All-American Bowl 
• Recipient of U.S. Army’s Glenn Davis Award
• Lettered in track and field
• Sea View League shot put champion
• Born in Mission Viejo, Calif.
• Full name is Kyle Neil Murphy
• Son of Gary and Keri Murphy
• Three older siblings: Kelly, Kasey and Kevin
     • Brother, Kevin, played at Harvard (2008-11) and spent time with the Minnesota Vikings
• Majoring in science, technology and society (innovation, technology and organizations)
(Stanford PR)